Well it looks like Anna is heading south and doing what I hoped she’d do and turn into a gulf storm. Actually I hope she dissipates as I have a lot of friends on boats south but you get the idea. I’m hoping “Bill” follows suit. If that is the case it can give the crew of Splendid a shot to continue north.
Here is some text copied from the NOAA site on the mariners 123 rule regarding hurricanes, I think it is good advice regarding their forecasting:
The Mariners’ 1-2-3 Rule, or “Danger area”, is indicated by shading. The 1-2-3 Rule, commonly taught to mariners, refers to the rounded long-term NHC forecast errors of 100-200-300 nautical miles at 24-48-72 hours, respectively. The contour defining the shaded area is constructed by accounting for those errors and then broadened further to reflect the maximum tropical storm force (34 knot) wind radii forecast at each of those times by the NHC. The NHC does not warrant that avoiding these danger areas will eliminate the risk of harm from tropical cyclones.
Users operating in the vicinity of these systems are advised to continually monitor the latest Forecast/Advisories from the NHC and proceed at their own risk. Areas are also shaded for systems in which NHC forecasters believe there is an adequate chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.
All is well on Splendid. I’m going to mount the new solar panels today and get a few other small projects done.
– Alex