Well it looks like Anna is heading south and doing what I hoped she’d do and turn into a gulf storm. Actually I hope she dissipates as I have a lot of friends on boats south but you get the idea. I’m hoping “Bill” follows suit. If that is the case it can give the crew of Splendid a shot to continue north.
Here is some text copied from the NOAA site on the mariners 123 rule regarding hurricanes, I think it is good advice regarding their forecasting:
The Mariners’ 1-2-3 Rule, or “Danger area”, is indicated by shading. The 1-2-3 Rule, commonly taught to mariners, refers to the rounded long-term NHC forecast errors of 100-200-300 nautical miles at 24-48-72 hours, respectively. The contour defining the shaded area is constructed by accounting for those errors and then broadened further to reflect the maximum tropical storm force (34 knot) wind radii forecast at each of those times by the NHC. The NHC does not warrant that avoiding these danger areas will eliminate the risk of harm from tropical cyclones.
Users operating in the vicinity of these systems are advised to continually monitor the latest Forecast/Advisories from the NHC and proceed at their own risk. Areas are also shaded for systems in which NHC forecasters believe there is an adequate chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.
All is well on Splendid. I’m going to mount the new solar panels today and get a few other small projects done.
– Alex
Published in Alex Dorsey
i’m guessing ana will go into the gulf and not bother me, and bill will curve up somewhere between bermuda and north carolina and possibly never reach shore near florida.
looks like bill could get pretty bad. i hope he never sees land.
Latest I read saz Bill will head for Bermuda so we are both safe I think. We are in Oriental, NC for another week.
busy going to a baby naming and brunch–hot hot weather but it was nice–sam it was for glenns second daughternamed rachel—we hope this 90 plus weather leaves soon–up to now the weather has been delightful—your daddy is in los vegas with ronnie –he has take some seminars for his job—his boss is there as well—book club tomorrow–love from us
Emily and I have been following your blog for about a year. We wanted to thank you for the wealth of sailing information you put up, and as of today we are certified sailors (ASA 101). We had never though of sailing or ever sailed before we discovered your site on accident. We are planning on “breaking free” in about 2 years and are even more interested than ever in you blog than ever because of Guin. Our son will be 3 or 4 when we start cruising and we want to do it as safe and as “green” as possible and we are getting a TON of tips and little do’s dont’s form you about sailing with a family. Well we hope all is well and are still sending positive vibes to you and your family.
Cheers,
Chris and Emily
Chris & Emily,
Congratulations on your sailing certs. I just heard of a family who uses their car seat in the cockpit, kind of a cool idea Guin is kind of big for that but I think it would work for a 3 year old.
Cheers and good luck. Maybe we can hook up if/when we make it to the Chesapeake.
Alex